![]() ![]() 4 The next crisis could test the limits of the Biden administration’s strategy of cooperate and compete as well as the defense posture of integrated deterrence. military aircraft carrier strike groups and partner forces from the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand conducting naval drills in the region. 3 This provocation occurred despite the presence of two U.S. 2 During the fall and winter of 2021, China increased its air intrusions into Taiwan, sending waves of strike and intelligence aircraft to demonstrate its ability to compel the island with military force and deter foreign intervention. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Commander, predicted the Chinese could challenge Taiwan within six years. 1 Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Admiral Phil Davidson, the U.S. The risk of a conflict over Taiwan is increasing. The analysis suggests a need to stress test emerging approaches to great power competition like integrated deterrence through additional wargames, develop new planning and analytical frameworks optimized for gray zone campaigns, and expand crisis communication channels.responses to Chinese aggression may inadvertently make future confrontations more dangerous and intractable. policymakers face shadow risk in gray zone confrontations: the desire to avoid short-term escalation triggers an increased appetite for risk in future disputes. ![]() This brief explores escalation dynamics in China’s gray zone campaign targeting Taiwan based on the results of 20 crisis simulations. ![]()
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